A Real Options Model of Real Estate Development with Entitlement Risk

Most development projects encounter a highly uncertain entitlement process that is largely uncontrollable by developers. In this study, entitlement is modeled as a separate stage within a compound real option, where developers begin with minimal control (maximum risk) and each successful stage increases control (decreases risk). We solve the model analytically, provide three‐dimensional numerical comparisons, and empirically test the model's predictions using hand collected rezoning petitions. Our main result refines the classic development option model: developers first invest early (secure entitlements) in order to obtain the option to subsequently delay investment (construct the optimal building at the optimal time).     

环境质量因地方政府的重视得到改善吗? ——基于文本挖掘的经验分析

本文利用Python技术对地方政府工作报告进行深度挖掘,在测度地方政府环境重视度的基础上研究地区环境质量是否因政府对环境问题的重视得到改善.实证结果显示,地方政府对环境问题的重视的确带来环境质量的显著改善.进一步的机制分析发现,地方政府的环境重视度之所以能带来环境质量改善,源于在一系列约束条件下地方政府选择具有显著治污绩效的环境立法和排污税费两个治理工具.一方面,证实地方政府重视对中国环境问题的解决非常重要,实现绿色、协调和可持续发展需地方政府提高对环境问题的重视;另一方面,通过地方政府在治理工具上的选择偏好发现当前环境治理实践中的"短板"和问题,为地区环保事业的发展提供有益的改进方向.     

A Note on a Framework for Valuation Ratios Based on Fundamentals*

Valuation ratios divide stock price by accounting metrics such as earnings, earnings growth, and book value. This study adapts the general valuation framework in Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005) and Ohlson (2005) to present a unified approach for developing valuation ratios based on fundamentals, referred to as fundamental valuation ratios. One starts with a valuation model that is driven by an accounting metric a and its abnormal growth, then divides the valuation model by a to get a fundamental valuation ratio. For any valuation ratio, one can find a corresponding fundamental valuation ratio, as long as the valuation model is based on the same metric a as the valuation ratio denominator.     

供应链金融智慧化创新的内在机理研究——基于扎根理论的探索性分析

文章基于10个智慧供应链金融案例,对供应链金融中信息通信技术的赋能机制、作用机理及所实现的智慧效应进行了梳理,报告了供应链金融进行智慧化创新的内在逻辑.通过采用扎根理论方法,展开实践案例资料调查,反映了供应链金融业务迫切需要新的技术支撑以解决资金供需双方的信息不对称问题,进而构建出"需求—手段—中介—效应"这一供应链金融创新机理模型,揭示了供应链金融智慧化创新的路径方法.     

老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

湿热地区精装住宅室内甲醛和TVOC污染调查及分析

对宁波精装修后未入住的76户住宅进行甲醛和TVOC浓度检测.统计发现,甲醛和TVOC平均超标率为52.5％和59.1％,儿童房室内污染最严重,高温高湿气候加速甲醛释放,人造板家具比实木家具的污染超标率高3.4倍.     

Childhood adversity and the propensity for entrepreneurship: A quasi-experimental study of the Great Chinese Famine

Studies on the determinants of entrepreneurship emphasize that challenged adults tend to become entrepreneurs. However, research has not addressed the childhood origins surrounding the propensity for entrepreneurship. This article links childhood adversity to the propensity of individuals to become migrant entrepreneurs later in life. We test hypotheses derived from this theory in the context of whether, and when, children who survived the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 became migrant entrepreneurs. Results strongly indicate that those who survived greater hardship during the Famine are more likely to become entrepreneurs, especially when they were younger during the famine years. We also find that being younger at the time of migration increased the likelihood of becoming entrepreneurs in their new locale. Overall, this study casts light on why, how and when childhood adversity shapes the propensity for entrepreneurship.     

北方县级海绵城市建设模式研究 ——以迁安海绵城市建设为例

我国北方缺水县级海绵城市建设的深入推进是实施海绵城市建设工作的重要内容,但目前我国北方缺水县级市的海绵城市建设工作还处于探索创新阶段.迁安依托海绵城市建设契机,在坚持政府主导、专家团队支持、社会资本运作、群众参与、发展区域产业优势等方面,首创了"一三一"模式,并取得了探索性经验,为其他北方缺水县级城市的海绵建设提供了有益启示和经验借鉴.     

施工进度管理与控制研究

目前国内一些施工工程因为进度不达标而不得不推迟工期,产生工期延误现象,进而就会造成项目不必要的工期和经济损失.施工工程延期的影响因素复杂,作为建筑工程项目管理三大控制中的一环,进度控制直接对工程造价、建筑经济以及项目社会效益产生影响,文章在对工程项目进度一般理论研究的基础上,分析人为、环境、资源、资金等影响因素,并提出适应性解决方案,为工程项目的进度管理研究提供理论基础.     

水文地质调查在地热资源勘查中的应用

在经济的发展和城市化推进的过程中,不可避免地会对自然环境造成污染与破坏,因此,有必要对污染环境进行勘察与研究,进而解决其中存在的问题,保障人们长远的生存与发展利益.其中,污染环境的地质水文勘察工作,是环境管理与保护工作中的重要环节、关键内容,更是后续工作开展的重要先决条件.本文通过对污染环境地质水文勘察技术的分析与探讨,总结分析出更有利于开展这一工作的方法与策略,提高污染环境地质水文勘察技术的应用水平.